When people come up with a new business idea, they’re often excited about the technical potential, the local opportunity, or the gap they’ve spotted in the market.

But before we get too deep into planning, we should ask a simple question:
“What future is this idea being built for?”

Because in today’s world, success isn’t just about solving a current problem. It’s about solving it in a way that still makes sense five, ten, even twenty years from now.

And that means taking the future seriously. Not just as a set of risks to avoid, but as a source of design inspiration.

The big picture is changing … fast

In Aotearoa New Zealand, we’re seeing a convergence of powerful megatrends that are reshaping what’s possible, what’s valued, and what’s viable.

From my viewpoint across science, land use, food and fibre, and nature-positive initiatives, here are a few trends I see as critical:

  • Climate disruption and decarbonisation is affecting land use, investment, policy and resilience
  • Consumer demand for sustainability and traceability is driving growth in nature-positive products and regenerative systems
  • Digital transformation and automation is changing how we operate, produce and monitor
  • The rise of artificial intelligence is creating new efficiencies, but also challenging how we use knowledge, design systems, and retain trust
  • Global swings and supply chain risks are requiring smarter, more regional value creation
  • Labour shortages and demographic change is forcing innovation in how we deliver value with fewer people
  • Shifting Te Ao Māori demographics and community expectations are elevating the role of place-based values and partnership in shaping resilient futures

These aren’t abstract forces. They’re shaping policy, funding, public expectations and competitive advantage right now.

The nature–economy tension is a design problem we can solve

One of the biggest challenges I see is the ongoing perceived tension between economic development and protection of nature.

Too often, it’s framed as “either–or”: we either grow the economy or we protect the environment. But the best ideas coming forward today don’t accept that trade-off. Instead, they look for ways to design integration from the start.

That might be:

  • Land use that regenerates ecosystems while producing premium food
  • Regional development projects that create jobs and enhance biodiversity
  • Business models that deliver financial return and carbon sequestration in the same investment

These ideas don’t just happen. They’re built carefully, with clear alignment to future trends and strong partnerships across science, mana whenua, business and community.

AI is both powerful and disruptive

AI has quickly moved from hype to reality, especially in knowledge work, data analysis and planning tools. For research, environmental management and regional development, AI can unlock entirely new ways of modelling systems, predicting outcomes and streamlining decisions.

But it also introduces new risks:

  • Loss of local context if decision-making becomes over-automated
  • Difficulty ensuring transparency in how decisions are made
  • The risk that systems are designed for communities but not with them

It is helpful to think of AI as a tool that enhances, not replaces, human and cultural intelligence. The opportunity is to pair digital capability with grounded, place-based thinking, particularly in sectors where social licence and trust matter.

Building in alignment from the start

If you’re in the early stages of shaping a new venture or programme, there’s real value in pausing to test your idea against the megatrends that are shaping the world to come.

I find what works best with organisations embarking on this journey is to:

  • Surface which trends matter most for their context
  • Identify where the risks and opportunities lie
  • Design delivery models that reflect both environmental limits and commercial realities
  • Strengthen the business case to attract funding and public support
  • Build confidence that the idea won’t just work today but will keep working tomorrow

The payoff? Relevance, resilience and results

When ideas are aligned with the direction the world is heading, everything gets easier. Investment is more likely. Partnerships are stronger. Delivery feels more focused. And the impact? It lasts.

If you’re developing a new business idea or programme and want to test its future fitness, I’d be glad to help.

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